Andre Gomes's Sports Articles

Andre Gomes

That's why I present to you my report of the 1st half of the NBA season. Enjoy it!

Before the beginning of the season, I wrote an extensive article about all 30 teams in the NBA. So it's normal that at the all-star break, I've decided to make another article to say what we can wait until the end of the regular season. And it's in this part of the season where we are getting closer to the playoffs that the teams start adapting to their realities. Curiously the same thing happen with the bettors. And that's why we have to analyze very well what the bookies will offer.

Last season after the all-star break, the best two teams of the regular season, Dallas and Phoenix, went 14-19 and 17-16 ATS respectively, while going 24-9 and 25-9 SU. But if we look to the bottom of the league, we see that the two worst teams last season, Memphis and Boston, went 17-11 and 19-12 ATS, while going 8-20 and 11-20 SU. The conclusion is simple: typically the bettor doesn't like to go with underdogs who won't be capable of winning the game outright and this takes the bookies to raise the spreads higher than they would normally do. In fact, an handicapper can use this fact for his side and realize that the line isn't correct and get advantage from it.

Analyzing now this season, there is a huge difference in the competitiveness between the West and the East. If the best two teams of the league are right now in the East (Boston and Detroit), the competitiveness in the West is way bigger. In fact, the difference between the first in the Western conference (New Orleans) and the 8th in the conference is just 4 ½ games! But there are three teams with the same record (32-20) in the eighth place, so the difference between the 1st and the 9th in the West is just 4 ½ games. In terms of handicapping this will be useful, especially in the totals, where a lot of games will be played just like a typical playoff game! Until now, in the games between teams from the West, the under has been dominating (202 overs and 244 unders - 45.3% of overs). As we will still have a lot of "pre-playoff" games, where obviously there will be less points than the usual thanks to the intensiveness, if the bookies don't adjust the lines, we may have a very strong edge in the under. The bookies have been perfect in the games between two teams from the West: 224-224 ATS!

On the other side, the gap in the East is huge and there are 19 ½ games between Boston (1st) and Philadelphia (8th) in the standings. Just five teams in the conference have a positive record, while there are ten teams with a positive record in the West (Portland is 10th, with a record of 28-24). Curiously in the East, the over has been dominating (236 overs - 216 unders). This domination is thanks to the problems the bookies are having in adjusting to the new run and gun styles of Indiana, Orlando or even Charlotte and Miami.

With this analysis, I'll take this article go even deeper. Taking in consideration my stats, I'll elaborate the Power Ranking of the 1st half of the season and predict what the teams can or can't do until the end of the regular season.

15. Miami Heat

With a brutal record of 9-42, Miami has been also terrible against-the-spread with a record of 18-34. But this team can be even worse at home, where they have just covered the spread in 27% (7-19) of their home games. The weirdest part is that against teams from the East, Miami is 2-15 ATS at home and 0-7 ATS, where they had the home dog. The trade of Marion brings to the team some momentum, but it will be dangerous for the handicappers, as Miami will always be loved by the bettors, which will make the bookies overrate them. The edge may go to the over, as with Marion the team will play faster. This was already shown by the bookies in the three games Marion has already played, as Miami had lines of 208, 211 and 195 points, where in normal conditions these lines would be way lower than they were. Twenty of the last thirty games of Miami will be against teams from the East, which may give some momentum to the team in the remaining of the season. However, they will need to improve in their home games, as a record of 1-9 ATS as home favorites is just brutal.

14. Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats have been disappointing this season, not that anyone was expecting a lot from the team, but they were obligated to do better than they did. The hiring of Nazr Mohammed, who would be good for the team has become a problem, with Okafor has been playing badly lately. The team has been playing with Gerald Wallace as a PF and a sign of that is that they had a record of 29 overs and 23 unders right now, showing that the team has been playing with a fast tempo this season. The team has shown that they are weak on away games and a good choice to fade, as they are 5-14 ATS being away dogs until now. Before the overtime win over Atlanta, the team was coming from seven defeats in a row. The biggest problem for this team is that 18 and their final 29 games will be away from home and that's the main reason why they are so low in my power rankings.

13. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are yet to find their identity this season, but the team is only four games away from the last spot for the playoffs and they will play at home 17 of their last 29 games in the regular season, so they still have a good chance to make it to the playoffs. But everything will depend from the physical conditions of Michael Redd. In this last series of games he was injured, the team had five defeats and just two wins. The Bucks have been a good fade when they are home favorites, as they are 4-10 ATS in this condition, but when they are the home dog, they are 7-4 ATS. The tendency will probably remain the same in the future and the Bucks as a home dog may be a good choice to back in these following months.

12. New Jersey Nets

The Nets were the worst team of the league against-the-spread in the first part of the season, with just 17-32. They have been the biggest disappointment of the season, when they were even considered as a potential winner of the conference this season. Now with Kidd's future being far from New Jersey, the team may have value in some of their following games, as they won't be loved by the public money. The record of 8-19 ATS in their home games shows how good they were to fade until now. The record of 23-30 would put them in the playoffs right now, but without Kidd it will be hard to predict what this team will do in the future. The only thing I know is that they will be the underdog in a lot of matches until the end of the regular season.

11. New York Knicks

The most hated team by the bettor, but who hasn't been that bad this season, as they are 26-26 ATS until now. Avoid them when they are favorites, as their record of 1-8 ATS in that situation, shows how inconsistent is the team. The team is 15-10 ATS in away games, mainly thanks to the hate of the bettors, which allows the bookies to give them very large spreads. The Knicks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games, showing that they have some value, especially when they are underdogs with a big spread. Without Marbury the team fights more, but they continue to collect losses until the end of the season.

10. Chicago Bulls

There is no other team in the NBA that has been so involved in trade rumors than the Bulls. Since the beginning of the season with Kobe and now with Ben Wallace, the media isn't giving any rest to Chicago. Right now they are 20-31 SU and 22-30-2 ATS. The team isn't far from a playoff spot and there is some hope in what Deng, Gordon and Hinrich will be capable to do, after they recover from their physical problems. If these players come back to their normal level, the team can actually make a good run until the end of the regular season. In terms of handicapping, the comeback of Gordon and Deng may give us some edge to the over. Don't forget that the over went 5-2 in the first seven matches with Boylan as the main coach.

9. Indiana Pacers

This run and gun team of the Pacers have been favored in the over, with a record of 27-23 o/u. The most surprising thing is that as a dog, the record goes to 21-14! Without Jermaine O'Neal, the team plays with a small lineup and they struggle a lot to stop the most powerful centers in the league, that's why they lost against Detroit, Houston, Orlando and San Antonio in a row. The comeback of O'Neal will be extremely important for this team, which on a phenomenal night, can defeat any team in the league.

8. Atlanta Hawks

With the recent trade of Bibby to Atlanta, the team gets a stronger lineup, but they need to stop the bad addict of losing away games. The team just won 4 out of 20 games on the road, with a 7-13 record. There were 15 unders in these matches, showing that the team can't play well offensively outside Atlanta. If the Hawks can improve their performances on the road, they can be a dangerous team, as they are 12-5 SU when they are home favorites.

7. Philadelphia 76ers

Be careful with this team, who went 18-10 ATS last season after the All Star Break. Curiously this stop was bad for them, as they may lose the momentum they got after winning their last five games. The team has a record of 23-30 O/U, but we will see this team getting more overs in the second part of the season, mainly thanks to the change in the starting lineup, with Evans going to the bench and Young taking his place, making the team more athletic and faster in the court.

6. Washington Wizards

How much time can they handle the injuries? That's the main reason for the Wizards. Without Butler and Daniels (and Arenas, of course), the team wasn't capable of being competitive and lost 8 of their last 9 games. This stop may have been good for them, as the players will be able to heal their injuries better. The Wizards have been very strong at home, going 13-4 ATS when they are home favorites, with also the under getting an edge on these matches (6-11 O/U). With Arenas planning his return in mid March, the Wizards will perform well in this part of the season if their main players can remain healthy.

5. Toronto Raptors

This team may be the East team of the second half of the season, not only because they will only play against teams from the West for eight times, but also the team with TJ Ford is finally ready to compete. There is no other team in the league, who can say they have two great PG like Toronto, who will use them to have a good ball movement for the whole 48 minutes of the game. They are 28-23 O/U until now, but this record is even more solid in away matches, where they are 16-9 O/U. The team has a good chance to reach the Top 3 on their conference.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

The team can be confused with Lebron, as in this season more than anyone, he has been the decisive player of the team, leading the NBA in scoring, but also leading the league in scoring in the 4th quarter. And this fact is creating problems to the bettor when the team is billed as a favorite. The Cavs are 8-16 ATS at home and 5-12 ATS as home favorites. When the bookies give extra points to the Cavs, the team wins the game outright, but they can't cover the spread. However, when the team plays on the road they are 12-9 ATS. Right now the Cavs have a lot of injured players, so this stop was great to the team. They have the necessary conditions to get the 3rd or the 4th place in the conference standings at the end of the regular season.

3. Orlando Magic

No other team played so well on the road like Orlando, who is 20-9 ATS in away games and 10-4 ATS as an away dog. The team until the end of the regular season will have 16 of their last 28 games at home and that will be a challenge for them, as they will need to get the habit of winning at home, as they will be a top seed in the East and if they don't start winning almost every home game, this will be fatal for them in the playoffs. The frontcourt of Orlando is the most powerful in the East, with Howard and Turkoglu, who is having a career season. But Howard will need to improve his FT %'s, as he is shooting better field goals than free throws, something unacceptable for his level. If he doesn't get better on this stat, Orlando will have problems, as their opponents will start to foul Howard to make him shoot from the free throw line.

2. Detroit Pistons

This team of Detroit is clearly having two different faces this season, as the under is 17-7 on their home games, but on away games the over is 14-5! That's weird, but something which won't be strange is that the team continues to win games and cover very high spreads. Detroit went 12-4 ATS when they were favored by more than 8 points in the first half of the season. But the tendency will be for these records to get worse, as they are a veteran team and they will need to save energies to the playoffs. Clearly a team to avoid large spreads in the last weeks of the regular season.

1. Boston Celtics

There is a lot of things which can be said about this team, but nobody can deny they are having an amazing regular season, with a 41-9 record. They have even become more amazing when some experts said that the team didn't have an hard schedule and they replied with a 16-0 record against teams from the West. What's also curious is that they are 11-1 against teams of their division, which is the same to say that the other eight defeats were against teams of just two divisions. The bettor must love Boston as a dog, as they are 6-0 ATS until now. Even without Garnett, Boston is being extremely competitive, defeating San Antonio and Dallas, but in the playoff he will be really necessary. The question about of the backup for the PG position remains and a move is expected in this area before the deadline expires.

Western Conference:

15. Minnesota Timberwolves

I've placed the Wolves in the last position in my Power Ranking, but don't get me wrong, as this team had a good month of January and February, way better than a good number of teams. Actually their record of 10-41 hides the fact that they have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games. The team has been underrated by the bookies, thanks to the bettors, but when they were an away dog, they had a nice record of 13-12 ATS. This team just like Memphis and Boston last season will be a team which will cover the spread a good number of times, thanks to some large spreads, as they have already shown that they can be competitive against any team in the league (as they were against Boston twice).

14. Seattle Supersonics

It may seem weird, but Seattle has given up of being competitive in order to Kevin Durant could develop without any kind of pressure, as in terms of potential this team is way better than the record of 13-38 shows, so how would you explain the fact that the Sonics are the team in the league with most bench points? With 38.7 ppg, the Sonics lead the league in front of the Spurs, showing that the team possesses a deep roster. Simply with Durant gaining experience, the Spurs lose a lot of ball games. It's funny to see that in the four games the team was favored this season, they have won three, as this is one of the teams with most unders this season (31 against just 20 overs!), The typical bettor loves points and associates that with Durant, making the Sonics a great team for the under.

13. Memphis Grizzlies

This team of Memphis without Gasol is weak and we can't expect nothing from them. The bookies have already realized them, putting the team as a double digits dog in 3 of their last 4 games. Their record of 14-38 shows how weak they are and this team will have huge spreads against them. But be careful, as they will be dangerous for the teams which will face team playing with a fast tempo, as Miller, Gay and Navarro inspired in the attack can raise the team to some good performances. But against teams with strong frontcourts, it will be very hard for them, as without Gasol the team hasn't any reference in the attack. The team as an away dog has a strong 8-15 O/U, a sign that they can't cause problems to their opponents' defenses and without Gasol, I don't see how they will be able to turn things around.

12. Los Angeles Clippers
One of the teams most destroyed by injuries, the Clippers have a record of 17-33 and without any real chance to make the playoffs, will they find any kind of motivation to be competitive until the end of the regular season? Elton Brand will be back in mid March, so the Clippers will still have to play a lot of matches without him. The under has a strong edge in the games of the Clippers (20-29 O/U) until now. But sooner or later, we will see the Clippers' opponents being favored with double digits spreads, something that will make the Clippers become a good team to back.

11. Sacramento Kings

Even though they have a record of 23-28, the Kings with the return of Bibby, Artest and Martin showed that they can be competitive, defeating some of the elite teams like Utah and New Orleans, but before the All-Star break, they have lost 3 games in a row and saw Mike Bibby leaving the team to Atlanta. This trade is clearly an huge opportunity for Beno Udrih, which was playing well during the absence of Bibby. The Kings won't have chances to qualify for the playoffs, but they have been good when they are the underdogs, going 23-12 ATS in this situation. But curiously when they are favorites, the team is just 5-11 ATS. It will be necessary to know if the team will be motivated even though they know they won't make it to the playoffs. If they maintain the spirit of competitiveness, the Kings can be an active dog in any circumstance.

10. Portland Trailblazers

Portland is one of the main surprises this season, as they are a team which passed from active dogs to favored by large spreads, which made the bettors struggle a lot. Portland had an amazing month in December, but after that the bookies, knowing that the bettors would start betting on the Blazers , started favoring the team by a large number of points, but as Portland only wins their matches in the last seconds, thanks to their fighting spirit, they can't cover large spreads. From a 17-3 ATS run, Portland is 4-13 ATS right now in their last 17 games. It will be very hard for them to make the playoffs and the key will be a road trip in early March, where they will face the Bucks, the Knicks, Cleveland, Minnesota and the Kings. If Portland makes a good run in this road trip, they may still have some chances to make it to the playoffs, as right at the end of the regular season, they will face almost all of the elite teams of the West. When the team is favored, the under is 13-7 O/U, which is normal as they have an overall record of 20-32 O/U. Their strongest factor has been the home games and it will remain like that. We should never ignore the dog + home game combo for Portland, who is 7-1 ATS in this situation.

9. Denver Nuggets

Now we enter the group of the nine elite teams in the West, where there is a very little difference of quality between them and where there will be a lot of changes in the table every week. For the 9th position I've chosen Denver, not that I doubt their quality, as they have actually shown a lot of intensity in their last games, but the reason for that is their schedule, which will be terrible. For their remaining 30 games, Denver will have to play twice against Detroit and Toronto, once against Boston, twice against Houston and San Antonio, three times against Phoenix and twice against Utah and Golden State! It's the same to say that Denver will have more than half of their remaining games against teams with a winning record. I'm not doubting the team, but their scenario is very hard for a team which has been very good at home (21-6 SU; 16-11 ATS). It will be necessary for them to dominate their home games and if that happens, Denver may end up 9th in the Conference or even winning it!
8. Golden State Warriors

What I've said about Denver is also true for Golden State, but simply they won't as much hard games as Denver in the remaining of the regular season. However, the team will have a terrible sequence at the end of March, which will define their future in this season. From March, 21st and April, 2nd the Warriors will face: Rockets, @Lakers, Lakers, Portland, @Denver, Dallas, @Spurs and @Dallas. The team this season is paying the price for what they have done to Dallas in last season's playoffs and they are having huge spreads in their home games, which brought them a 6-16 ATS record this season when they are home favs. Also the title of most exciting team in the league is being correct, as the over is 28-22 in their games and it becomes 16-9 O/U in their home games. The eventual inconsistence of the team will be a huge problem for that to reach the playoffs in a very competitive conference and they will need to raise their actual level to make it to the playoffs, but from the Warriors we can expect everything.

7. Houston Rockets

The Rockets have reached the All Star break being the hottest team in the league with eight wins in a row and 12 wins in their last 13 games. It is yet to be known if this stop in the league will also stop their momentum. The Rockets have learned that they can't be so dependent of what T-Mac can do and although the team gets an extra boost with him, Houston continues to be competitive when McGrady can't play. Even though they have changed their coach, the team continues to be an aggressive team with Adelman and they have a solid record of 22-30 O/U. The team will now have an easy schedule, playing at home against teams from the East with negative records, which will give them more confidence for the rest of the season. Surely the Rockets will take part of the playoffs this season.

6. Dallas Mavericks

It seems weird to see Dallas so low in my power ranking, but the true is that in this season Dallas has shown a lot of inconsistence. For example, they have lost 3 of their last 4 matches before the All Star break and with all the story involving the team and Jason Kidd, it is yet to be known what they will be able to do this season. Being certain that Kidd will need time to adapt to a new team and style of play, Dallas will have to play 13 games against teams which are in the first nine positions in the Western conference, pretty much like Denver. This season Dallas is 21-29 ATS until now, far away from last season's numbers, where they finished the regular season with a record of 44-36 ATS. The team has been terrible as an away favorite, having a poor record of 7-14 ATS. The Kidd effect may not also help the handicapper, as the team will have some large spreads in games where Kidd won't be 100% adapted to the team yet. A team to avoid, in my opinion.

5. New Orleans Hornets

I know it seems weird to put the best team of the West in the 5th position, but the Hornets start these final 30 games of the regular season without something the other teams possess: experience! They will play 12 games against rivals of the West and in these games certainly they will suffer some huge losses and the way they will react to these losses will be the key for them. Chris Paul has been amazing, but these Hornets won't have an easy task, as besides these games, they will also have a road trip in the East at the end of March, where they will have to face in a row Cleveland, Boston, Toronto and Orlando. The team has been an ATS machine with a record of 32-19! And they had a positive record in any circumstance. It's curious the fact that they went 14-10 O/U at home and 10-16 O/U on the road. It's a team to pay attention as a dog in the future.

4. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have shown recently that they have a big heart, as after losing three games in a row, they were capable to win at Phoenix, while being a 7 points dog. Actually after these three losses, the team had a 6-1 run. But I don't believe they will win the conference, as in the last times they were champions, they weren't the top seed neither and Popovych will be more concerned in recovering Parker than in winning the conference. As always the Spurs are an under machine (20-30 O/U)), showing a very strong defense (second best team in the league). The fact that they were never back to back champions, make me think that Popovych will be more concerned in making the team arrive in good physical conditions to the playoffs than in being the top seed in the West.

3. Phoenix Suns

We all know the Suns are a team almost perfect for the regular season, but this season D'Antoni has to worry in how to fit Shaq in the team and in their system. The next three games of the Suns will be very important, as the team will face at home the Lakers, Boston and Detroit. The bookies couldn't handle the scoring machine which is Phoenix, as the over is 29-23 O/U in their games, being 16-9 O/U when the Suns play at home. The team is 11-18 ATS in games against teams from the Western conference, which is a concern for them, with the games they will have to play against these teams until the end of the regular season. If Shaq is capable of being in a good physical shape, the Suns will be a serious contender for the title, but for that we need to wait and see.

2. Utah Jazz

This team has finally regrouped in January and they have shown that they are one of the most complete teams in the league. They were terrible in December, as their games was unidimensional, playing always to the frontcourt, but now with Okur in good shape and with the trade of Korver, Utah is a very powerful team. They are right now together with Dallas the best team at home of the league, with a record of 22-3 SU and in the 12 games they will have against their rivals, 7 of them will be at home, where they have a record of 16-9 ATS. The calendar is favorable to Utah, as the road trip they will make will just be 4 games long and in the East, where even though they are 8-13 ATS, they have won their last seven games. If the team remains healthy, they have the necessary conditions to have a good run in this final games of the regular season.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have been one of the surprises of the season, with a great record of 31-19-2 ATS, however with the Gasol effect the team has lose a little value, as the bookies will rate them higher now than in the beginning of the season. Anyway the team is in a great condition right now, with a very deep bench. The major problem for the team will be in the middle of March where they will have a road trip with matches against the Hornets, Houston, Dallas and Utah. The schedule of Lakers is easily the easiest one in the teams of the West and that's the main reason why they are first in my power ranking, but the team with Gasol is much more complete than it used to be and they have everything to be a top seed in this season's playoffs.

Magical Trend:

My philosophy of handicapper is based mainly in analyze in every game all the factors that may influence the game, associating this to a battle against the bookies. But we can never ignore the power of a trend and we have to know how to deal with them and use the trends in our favor. In this season some amazing trends have been built and I'm going to share with you one of them:

In this season when a team loses ATS against a conference rival and being an huge dog (between +12 and +13,5), the under is 2-16 O/U in the following game. We are talking about a trend with a 89% success rate in this season!

With this article I hope I've helped everybody who follows the NBA and especially that all of us end the season with a good profit. I'll give my best for that to happen.

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